An unverified screenshot from the live-tracking GDP feed for all countries, based on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) data, was shared by several BJP leaders including Union Ministers.
The total domestic production of India is still a bit far from reaching up to 4 trillion dollars, but economists say that the milestone may not be too distant. According to the Central Budget for 2023-24, India’s GDP is estimated to reach up to 301.75 lakh crore rupees, showing a growth rate of 10.5% from the estimated 272.41 lakh crore rupees in the financial year 2022-23. In terms of the US dollar, this translates to a GDP of 3.63 trillion dollars for the current fiscal year.
In the current circumstances, achieving a 4 trillion dollar economy seems unlikely. It would be a transformation of almost 330 lakh crore rupees in nominal GDP, which could be possible with a 10% growth in the fiscal year 2024-25, according to Madan Sabnavis, the Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda.
On Sunday, a screenshot went viral on social media, indicating that India’s GDP has crossed 4 trillion dollars, and many people welcomed this development, stating that India has surpassed Britain to become the third-largest economy, and it’s not too far from reality.
However, there has been no official confirmation or denial. Official GDP estimates for India are released by the National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, according to a predetermined calendar. These official estimates are used by all agencies, including international ones.
The first provisional estimate of GDP for the financial year 2023-24, including the expected GDP growth rate, will be available at the beginning of January before the interim budget for 2024-25. Subsequently, the second provisional estimate in February and the first final estimate in May will be released.
Nevertheless, economists and experts have raised questions on the data being shared on social media, emphasizing that predictions about the future are often misleading.
“I am surprised at how everyone is jumping based on a screenshot. Based on the rolling basis, India will not reach up to 4 trillion dollars until the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. The expected nominal GDP for India in the financial year 2023-24 is approximately 300 lakh crore rupees, meaning the GDP will be around 3.65 trillion dollars at current exchange rates,” said Rahul Bajoria, Chief Economist, and Managing Director at EM Asia (ex-China) Economics, Barclays, on his personal Twitter account.
Deepak Shenoy, the founder and CEO of Capitalmind, also commented on Twitter, saying, “Unfortunately, India’s GDP has not yet reached 4 trillion dollars. Until June, we are at about 3.38 trillion dollars, and possibly now we are at a maximum of 3.45 trillion dollars.”
Official data on GDP estimates for the second quarter of the fiscal year will be released at the end of the month.
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